MOULTON: UNM will need more offensive stabilty to make program history this March

UNM’s Donovan Dent holds the MWC regular season championship trophy with his teammates in The Pit after the Lobos defeated the UNLV Runnin’ Rebels, 81-67, on March 7. Erik Moulton/The Pit Press

The countdown to Selection Sunday has reached its expiration.

Although the UNM men’s basketball team did not reach the Mountain West Conference Tournament championship game, they should still be safe to receive an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament.

According to the national pundits and so-called ‘bracketologists’, New Mexico could find their name being called anywhere from a No. 8 seed to an 11.

UNM fans have been vocal on the notion that they need to avoid the eight-nine line because if - and only if - the Lobos were to win in the first round, then that would set up a second-round matchup with a potential No. 1 seed. It would be a game against powerhouses like Duke, Auburn, Florida, Houston… matchups the Lobos would not be favored well in.

Nonetheless, all of this is completely out of UNM’s control and if history is a good indicator of how the NCAA committee has seeded Mountain West teams (not named San Diego State) then the Lobos could land in a precarious situation.

But it’s the Big Dance. Anyone and everyone who makes the tourney is good. Pretty simple - right? You have to beat good or great teams to advance - it’s reality. 

The Lobos have had a good season and there’s no arguing against that.  Their resume speaks for itself.  

UNM’s beaten the likes of UCLA, VCU, Utah State (twice), Colorado State (twice), San Diego State, and went toe-to-toe with Rick Pitino’s - and Richard Pitino’s father - Big East Champion St. John’s in Madison Square Garden.

Erik Moulton/The Pit Press

Pitino’s Lobos have proven they can beat good teams and challenge the better ones.

So how does this play out for UNM on Selection Sunday? Where will they be headed? Who will they be matched up with?

More importantly, how do they win and advance?  Something this program hasn’t done since 2012 when they beat Long Beach State in the First Round.

They ended up losing in the next round to Rick Pitino’s Louisville. That Cardinals’ team found themselves in the Final Four.

In 2010, UNM beat Montana in the first round of the NCAA Tournament and then end up losing to Washington in the Round of 32.

The tale of the tape would show that the Lobos have struggled to make it to the second weekend of the tournament.  But is this year's team primed to be the one to finally make the Sweet 16? Lobo ‘faithful’ would consider it the most successful season in UNM history if they did.

But easier said than done.

Analytically speaking, the Lobos metrics and record suggests they would be a tough matchup for anyone in the country. 

The Lobos adjusted tempo (pace of play) is fourth fastest in the country. They are also 25th nationally at 81.6 points-per-game.

Erik Moulton/The Pit Press

But if you look deeper, you’d see that Donovan Dent and Nelly Junior Joseph effectively contribute almost 45 percent of the team's made field goals. Mustapha Amzil, Filip Borvicanan, and Tru Washington combine to make up the other 32 percent of the made field goals - leaving 28 percent for the bench to fill in.

Case in point - the Lobos rely heavily on Dent and Nelly to make their offense “go”.

It’s no secret, teams have plotted against stopping those two in the pick-and-roll game and double-teaming Nelly in the post.

Depending on the matchup the Lobos get come Selection Sunday, you know their opponent will focus their defensive strategy on taking Dent and Nelly away.

In order for the Lobos to win-and-advance, they must find a way to get more offensive production from the ‘other guys’. Washington, Amzil and CJ Noland have shown flashes throughout the year of being offensive weapons but it hasn’t been nearly consistent enough.

Erik Moulton/The Pit Press

Borovicanin is more of an effective defensive specialist and rebounder, even though he’s been able to make shots from time to time. But he shouldn’t be labeled as a scoring machine.

A perfect example is in the latest loss against Boise State in the MWC semifinals. Dent and Nelly combined for 42 of the Lobos' total 69 points (60 percent). Amzil (10 points on 4-for-16 shooting), Washington (10 points on 3-for-9 shooting), and Borovicanin (one made 3 on 1-for-6 shooting). Those three starters only combined for 23 points on 8-for-31 shooting (25% from the field).

The bench production was abysmal (or non-existent). UNM only scored 4 points compared to Boise State’s 18 (Noland had 0 points and missed all three of his shots).

The reality is that offense isn’t just created out of thin air, but there definitely needs to be a concerted effort to get some of the role players and bench more involved.  It’s easy to say that they need to make more shots, but it's also a fact. 

To win in the NCAA Tournament, teams need to hit shots.

The key to the Lobos winning and advancing is getting a more balanced scoring attack.  There have to be other guys who play significant minutes be a scoring factor as well.

We’ve all witnessed the scoring ability of Dent and pure domination of Nelly in the post.  But when UNM has all their eggs in one basket and one of those eggs gets taken away, then there needs to be something formidable there to replace it.